CES Fallout: Sony expected to herald "next gen 1.5"

"History suggests Sony will succeed"? How is that?

Both Playstations came out before their tougher competitors, and that could be one of the main reasons why they both sold like hotcakes; that's the reason the 360 will sell like hotcakes. A new piece of hardware, ahead of time, but in a competing generation.

What Sony seems to want is to distance itself from the rest, just like the Dreamcast did. Only this time its by launching after everyone else, and being the most powerful system for a long while, whereas the Dreamcast didn't last too long as the most powerful. I would expect it to do a lot better than the Dreamcast if this forecast were true, but it wouldn't fare as well as if it were launched around the same time as the Revolution.

Plus, launching a year later than the XBOX 360 can't qualify as another generation. Even though the PS3 could kick the 360's ass (on paper, at least), a year difference won't put it in another generation. Considering most people with a 360 or a PS3 won't even have HDTVs that take advantage of the graphical wonders (let alone differences between the two) the systems boast, I can't see the PS3 looking much more attractive to the end user, save a few game exclusives...

So then, as always, it's down to the games. Except this time Microsoft has the head start, and looks to have it for a full year in advance. If you ask me, Sony can't go anywhere but down from now on.

Didn't Gary Penn once say the Dreamcast was a "snack between Playstations"?

At the time I thought he was being an obnoxious prick, but, in a way, his prediction turned out to be true.

The 360 will do well in America, and probably okay in Europe. But for it to be considered the market leader it needs to be big in Japan, and as the latest figures show, even DOA4 can't shift the thing (even the Gamecube outsold it last week).

Will the Mistwalker RPGs be the killer App to finally convince the Japs? After the muted effect DOA4 had on them, it's unlikely.

I predict the XB360 will be a huge success in the US - probably equal to PS3 - so I'll refrain from calling it a snack... maybe Elevenses?

With regard to the graphical performance, there was an article in the Edge which had an interview with guy from ATI who said that the 360 would outperform the PS3 in the long run...

He said that the Nvidia graphics chip was just bolted on as they had 3 internal solutions for the system graphics chip but they dropped them. So they went and asked Nvidia what they could give do for them and they just gave them an off the shelf chip...

But that is from an ATI guy. Does anyone else know anything about this?

But the power thing is all relative. To use the favoured car analogy, its not how much power you have, its how you apply that power through the cars chassis and tires onto the road that counts.




Do you really need to be big in Japan anymore? Their games market is shrinking... and more and more Japanese games makers are looking abroad to sell games. also take into acount the emerging markets where online is a bit thing...

???

Every console comes out before a tougher competitor! Please don't try to tell us that Dreamcast was in the same generation as PS1. Let's not even mention N64, with it's dumbass cartridge media and shocking marketing.

So, ignoring your glib comment, the fact is that PS1 came out after Saturn. It was easier to develop for (and we've been hearing that PS3 is easy to develop for, contrary to common foaflore wisdom) and PS1's superior marketing pushed gaming out of the bedroom and into the lounge. Subsequently, Sony has "owned" the console market since.

Well, as SPOnG's own report on NDS sales suggests; M$, $ony and Ninty DO still need it.

3.5m in Europe, 4m in the US, and 5m in Japan.

Plus:

- PS2 sales are still going strong (last week: 78,646),

- The biggest selling game of two weeks ago (the catchily titled 'Kahashima Ryuuta Kyouju Kanshuu: Motto Nou o Kitaeru Otona DS Training') sold 414,556 units

- The biggest selling PS2 title in the same week was Kingdom Hearts II - 156,837

Looks pretty healthy to me.

Umm, I'm pretty much saying the Dreamcast wasn't competing against anyone, or if anything, against the PS2/GCN/XBOX, albeit prematurely.


The PS1 started off competing against the Saturn, but you can't ignore the fact that it quickly started competing against the N64. The N64, despite arriving late and using carts, did a lot better than the Saturn. Nobody gave a s**t about the Saturn about a year or two after the N64 was launched, but PS1 was doing incredibly well, and still managed to hold its own after the PS2 launched.

All I'm saying is that now, things are different. Before, Sony launched before their main competitor. This is still true in the 32/64-bit generation, as the Saturn slowly died and the N64 sort of took its place in the fight against the PS1. Now, the PS3 might be the last one to come out. That only makes it harder to win.

Wow, that's a pretty wild conclusion to draw on the basis of... um... nothing at all. Sony don't have to even try nowadays, they just do nothing, and sites like Spong do all their marketing for them.

Me, I'd rather buy a console and play next-gen games now, than wait an unspecified length of time to play games on a console that might or might not be more powerful, and might or might not be more expensive than it too. But that's because I'm not a vacuous imbecile suckling at the teat of the Sony propaganda machine.

It makes me sick, it really does. Chances are I may buy a PS3 when it arrives as well, but when even allegedly independent games news sites display this kind of desperate fanboyism, you wonder what hope there is left in the world.

Yes, I understand, but you have to agree that the Saturn was the PS2 main (and for a good while only) competitor.

The reason nowbody gave a s**t about it after a couple of years was PS1 completely wiped the floor with it.

My guess is that N64 did better because of very strong Nintendo fan loyalty.

Something tell me you might be a little bit biased.


Oddly, the writer of that particular article is extremely cynical of Sony's motivations and methods; a Sony anti-fanboy, if you please.

The fact is, developers we've spoken with tell us that the PS3 is way more powerful than 360 and actually easy to develop for, but then, you've prolly not had a play with those PS3 dev kits.

You've messed up bad there. You mean PS1, right?

:)

The nature of "conole wars" is a strange one. You'd think the new kid on the block can only compete aginst what's already out? But the Playstation brand's strength is such, that perfectly decent machines don't have a fair stab, simply because the PS-loving general public are willing to hold out for a console they've not even seen yet: PSn

Why wasn't the DC a run-away success? It's graphics were WAY better than the N64s. The games looked crisp and sharp, and I can still remember my jaw crashing to the ground when seeing Sould Calibur for the first time.

But, ultimately, the general public were duped by $ony's incredible hype machine, into thinking PS2 games would invoke emotions beyond anything experienced before. "That's sure worth waiting for!". And why risk it with SEGA, when $ony didn't let you down last time?

Of course, the truth is that the PS2 is only marginally more powerful than DC - actually, the initial games looked worse.

With the XB360, it's slightly different. It's hard to guage how in-demand it is, because what's available sells straight away, but that's not saying much with stock levels being what they are.

It's sitting on shelves in the fiercly proud Japan, which I expected, but not to the degree figures suggest. The PS brand will dominate there again.

PS is the brand to which all others are compared.

If you release a machine a few years after a PS, you'll have buyers ignoring you, waiting for the next PS.

If you release a machine just after a PS, you've got an almost impossible catch-up.

And judging by his EDGE interview, Kojima sure hates PS3 programming...

There's a lot of stats out there. A lot of engine trouble rumours, too. A lot of discussion that the CELL in PS3 is less capable than said. There's also a lot of people saying it's easy to make for, that CELL is the be all and end all of power, that the stats are correct.

All I know is, Sony had to admit nigh on all that PS3 footage wasn't real, and that their partners said that the stats may be a little unrealistic. I'll wait until I see someone standing, holding a pad, playing a real game. THAT is when I'll know if Sony have a winner or not.

Right first, when the Saturn and PS1 launched in 1995, Saturn was beating the crap out of the PS1... in 1996 when the N64 was launched it was beating the crap out of the PS1, in Japan the Saturn actually sold better then the N64, in that year. When FF7 launched in 1997 the tables turned and PS1 advantages over the other 2 (mainly ease of development and cheaper meidum) were taking over. Saturn was dropped because SEGA wasn't making any profits thanks to splitting it user-base by providing add-ons for the Megadrive when the Saturn was launched, the N64 was actualy a very porfitable console for Nintendo (top 5 of best-selling games of that generation were all N64-games).

What Sony is planning is turning the Xbox360 into the next Dreamcast, will proof to be harder then last time, MS isn't a company that had a billion dollar debt like SEGA... however, MS has a big weakness, it has to do what shareholders want the company to do and shareholders want to see the Xbox-project making a profit in 2007, if that doesn't happen ,the plug will be pulled. MS will not be trowing money around like last gen, Sony knows this. It's nice seeing Sony take a more Nintendo-esque stand in terms of hardware launch and take the time to get everything sorted out.

And does "easier to develop" mean anyway? Easier then the PS2? or easier then the Xbox360? Or easier then the GameCube? More powerfull, sure but power doesn't mean squat anyways in the gaming industry, besides power needs to go up expotential to see a significant difference anyways so unless the PS3 has expotential more power then the Xbox360 (which it doesn't by a long shot) the difference is minimal. More flexible, i can believe that, however Cell has a flaw with its vector design. The problem with the vector units is that they cant acces the main memory on their own, the central cpu has to assign them their task and data and needs to call up the resultdata from the vector unit. Problem is, if the central cpu (which is actually the same as 1 of the 3 Xbox360 cores but slighly lower clocked) can't keep up the whole system will stall even if the vector units are only being used for 5%, also Cell is very abstract which makes it very flexible but also a pain in the butt for beta-testing because developers don't know what runs on what cache-memory or vector unit unless you explicit program it... and programming code to tell what code of the game should run on what is the same reason developers hate the multi-core set-up of the Xbox360.

And again Nintendo is not mentioned...are Sony and MS really seeing Nintendo in a market and league of its own or what? Too wildcard to do any kind of sound remark? Or is the PSP getting its ass too hard kicked to risk any bold statement against the revolution?

This is rediculous, why is everybody acting like sony hasnt already realeased the official specs yet? Spong and its readers keep saying things like we've talked to developers and they tell us that PS3 might be a little faster, or maybe it will be, maybe it wont be.. we already know EXACTLY how fast it is, Sony released the specs at E3, so there's no need to guess. The Specs are almost IDENTICAL to Microsofts system, both have a CPU of 3.2 ghz, both have the same ammount of ram, and both has Graphics cards that are almost exactly the same speed. The PS3 is NOT faster then the 360, not at all... whatsoever... The only thing the PS3 has over 360 is a higher storage capacity via blueray technology, but thats almost errelavent, all that means is that a developer might have to release a game on two disks for 360 as opposed to one on PS3, but if you're too lazy to take the 4 seconds it takes to switch disks then you shouldnt own a system. As far as graphics are concerned, I think the 360 is going to blow it away... why ? Because by the time PS3 is released the 360 will be in its second generation of games, the developers will already have become familiar with the hardware and it will be a second effort, those of you who argue that the cell processor is more efficient, and therfor a tad bit more powerful are just plain ignorent, this is a brand new technology, it is being used for the first time, its not proven, its never been applyed or developed to any application that can be used to judge its efficiency when compared to any other cpu. It may turn out to be more efficient, it may turn out to be a little less, either way, you're not going to be able to tell the diffrence when your playing games. The most impressive tech demo I've seen from PS3 that was actualy real time was Fight Night, from EA games.. and I've played that same game on Xbox 360 after having downloaded it last night and it looks exactly the same.. only I'm playing it now... I dont have to wait a year. And by the way, I'm not a huge fan of either the sony brand or microsoft, I'm just amazed that people are blindly proclaiming PS3 to be the "true next generation machine", when thats simply not true

Lessee:

360: 3 PPC, 3.2GHz, 1MB cache, 3 vector units
PS3: 1 PPC, 3.2GHz, 512K cache, 7 vector units

So right there we've got a machine with a third as many processor cores and half the cache but a bit more than twice as many vector units. How is this going to be noticibly more powerful?

Darn my feeble fingers. They're the about the only joints in my body that don't ache today, and still they fail me.



Was DC's lack of uptake really due to Sony's anti-marketing? Or was it due to Sega's inability to get the right (or any) message across? Aside from the ridiculous "x million players" ad, I really can't recall any for DC. PS1 had loads of cool lifestyle ads, just selling the brand. It worked.

Plus, and I'm likely to be shot down for this, the "launch window" software (to used MS' first year blanket term) was a pretty dire mix of ports and so-so exclusives - purely a matter of tase, of course.

Am I pissed off the DC died? Yes. I've got one clogging up a cupboard at home. Who do I blame for killing it? Sega.